Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note auction went well with the benchmarks indicating a decent demand from investors. Bonds improved slightly immediately after the auction results were announced at 1:00 PM ET and then steadily gained ground throughout the afternoon. This led to widespread revisions to mortgage rates of different sizes. That allows us to be optimistic about today’s 7-year Note sale. If the 1:00 PM ET results release shows a similar level of interest as yesterday’s sale, we could see another round of bond strength later today and possibly, an improvement in mortgage pricing before the end of the day.

Medium

Positive

Consumer Confidence Index

The Conference Board gave us this week’s only relevant economic release at 10:00 AM ET this morning. They said their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) stood at 94.6 this month. This was a little higher than expected, but a decline from September’s revised 95.6. October’s decline means surveyed consumers felt better about their own finances last month than they did this morning. Since declining confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers that fuel economic growth, we can label the report favorable for bonds. Unfortunately, the upward revision to September is preventing much of an impact on this morning’s rates.

High

Unknown

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Tomorrow doesn’t have any relevant economic data set for release, but we do have the adjournment of this week’s FOMC meeting to watch. Fed Chairman Powell and friends are expected to make their second consecutive rate cut, lowering key short-term rates by .250 of a percent despite a noticeable lack of important economic data to use as guidance. Last Friday’s release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will contribute to their decision, even though the report didn’t show enough of a surprise to alter the Fed’s plans. That report was released despite the shutdown because it is used to determine the annual Cost of Living Adjustment to social security benefits. A secondary benefit was giving the Fed some data to rely on this week.

High

Unknown

Misc Fed

The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow. Their written statement will also be released at that time, while the press conference with Chairman Powell will start at 2:30 PM ET. This meeting does not include revised economic projections or their dot plot of key rate predictions. We could see a good amount of volatility tomorrow afternoon if they give us any surprises. Then again, with little data to use as a prediction for future actions, it may be a non-event for the markets also. Assuming we do get a quarter point rate cut, traders will be most interested in what the Fed expects to do at December's meeting and how the government shutdown may influence their plans.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

Consumer Confidence Index

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement

Misc Fed

Float / Lock Recommendation